Nostalgie della GUERRA FREDDA

foto http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bundesarchiv_Bild_183-R77767,_Berlin,_Rotarmisten_Unter_den_Linden.jpg In Ucraina la tregua di Minsk non regge. L'epicentro degli scontri è Donetsk, dove i filorussi+russi bombardano l'aeroporto per prenderne il controllo. Ma le notizie degli scontri e dei morti sono solo il corollario di uno scenario globale in movimento. Come riportato dal New York Times del 13/6 : "...  In a significant move to deter possible Russian aggression in Europe, the Pentagon is poised to store battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons for as many as 5,000 American troops in several Baltic and Eastern European countries, American and allied officials say. The proposal, if approved, would represent the first time since the end of the Cold War that the United States has stationed heavy military equipment in the newer NATO member nations in Eastern Europe that had once been part of the Soviet sphere of influence. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine have caused alarm and prompted new military planning in NATO capitals." Da parte di Putin la mossa americana è ampiamente scontata, e per certi versi auspicata, perché rinfocola la propaganda di regime con l'armamentario da guerra fredda dei bei tempi del KGB. Secondo un sondaggio recente del Pew Research Center, più dei due terzi dei cittadini russi rimpiange il periodo sovietico, e quasi altrettanti pensano che i paesi limitrofi dell'ex impero appartengono alla Russia. Russians are nostalgic for the era of the Soviet Union. Nearly seven-in-ten Russians (69%) say the breakup of the Soviet Union was a bad thing for Russia. Just 17% say it was a good thing. Older Russians, those ages 50 and older, are much more likely to say that the breakup of the USSR was a bad thing (85%). Only 44% of young Russians say the same, though around a quarter (27%) have no opinion, probably owing to the fact that 18- to 29-year-olds were children or not even born when the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s. Additionally, about six-in-ten Russians (61%) agree with the statement that “there are parts of neighboring countries that really belong to us.”      

Dove portano gli esperimenti di Zar Putin e Boss Obama ?

  L'escalation della guerra in Ucraina tocca un alto livello di guardia, testimoniato dal tentativo Merkel - Hollande di far cambiare idea a Putin, il quale a sua volta chiede loro di far cambiare idea ad Obama. 1) Putin ha inviato truppe ed armi in Ucraina per tentare di acquisire una parte di territorio (fino a Mariupol) per poi sedersi al tavolo delle trattative per congelare la situazione (annessione di una parte dell'Ucraina). 2) Obama fa finta di resistere alle pressioni della Nato e del Congresso a maggioranza Repubblicana favorevoli alla fornitura di "armi letali" all'esercito ucraino.  Il suo prossimo Segretario di Stato A. Carter si è detto favorevole a considerare l'opzione "arma letale". 3) Le sanzioni economiche applicate da USA e EU stanno creando difficoltà a Putin, ma non ne scalfiscono la popolarità interna, nè il potere, che anzi si rafforza  e giustifica le ulteriori limitazioni alle libertà politiche e di espressione con l'aggravarsi dello scontro con l'Occidente. Inoltre Putin sa che le sanzioni economiche e il rischio di contagio finanziario sono una leva per convincere gli Europei a fare pressioni su Obama, perché l'economia di Francia, Germania & C. ha bisogno anche della Russia per riprendersi dallo stato di crisi. Le elezioni in Grecia con la vittoria di Syriza hanno dato una sponda ulteriore alle pressioni geopolitiche di Putin. 4) I colloqui di domenica Russia-Germania-Francia-Ucraina si concluderanno con tanti appelli e qualche pugno di mosche. I termini della questione sono esattamente quelli di un anno fa: Putin considera l'intera Ucraina come territorio di influenza politica della Grande Russia; essersi annesso la Crimea non gli basta. Gli europei non solo non hanno intenzione di "morire per Kyev" ma hanno bisogno di fare affari con i russi. Obama è costretto a mostrare i muscoli, dopo i tanti schiaffi internazionali, perché la campagna elettorale per le elezioni presidenziali del prossimo anno è già iniziata.  5) Con la caduta del prezzo del petrolio e i rischi di una recessione economica globale, cosa c'è di meglio di un pericolo di guerra Est - Ovest per entusiasmare gli speculatori e le industrie belliche nazionali ?        

Putin gioca la mossa escalation

Ma davvero Putin pensava di essere l'unico ad aver letto Omero ? Oppure la mossa del "convoglio umanitario" non è stato altro che un deliberato atto di escalation, preparato in modo che l'esercito ucraino fosse costretto ad attaccare e a creare le premesse di una risposta militare ? La seconda ipotesi è più probabile: 1) Putin non può non ottenere una influenza ufficiale e riconosciuta sulla parte russofona dell'Ucraina. Qualunque altra soluzione sarebbe per lui una sconfitta. 2) La guerra delle sanzioni è lunga ed incerta e permette all'Ucraina di prendere tempo e sfiancare i ribelli filorussi. 3) Il consenso interno ottenuto con l'annessione della Crimea rischia di scomparire in una prospettiva di logoramento. 4) Putin è convinto (con validi argomenti) che l'Europa non seguirebbe gli USA fino in fondo in una eventuale escalation del conflitto.   Anche le partite a scacchi hanno bisogno di improvvise accelerazioni.    

Sull'orlo del baratro

I russi abbattono un aereo civile con 300 civili, vittime rappresentanti i popoli di gran parte del mondo. Israele invade Gaza, simbolo di un conflitto epocale che divide le coscienze di gran parte del mondo. Il Mondo è sull'orlo di un baratro. Da BBC News "Former ambassador to Russia Sir Tony Brenton told BBC News: "The assumption has to be Ukrainian rebels - who have shot down a number of Ukrainian military aircraft - may well have shot down this airliner, presumably by mistake." The tragedy had "such potentially grave ramifications", he added, "it will have gone straight to Mr Putin".   CreditDmitry Lovetsky/Associated Press     Da AlJazeera :"Israeli tanks entered Gaza on Thursday night after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a ground invasion, a major escalation in a ten-day offensive that has already killed more than 230 Palestinians.  Witnesses in Gaza reported heavy bombing from jets, warships and artillery stationed along the border, with much of the firing was directed at northern Gaza. The electricity was cut off across a large swathe of the strip, though it was unclear why."

La faglia EURASIATICA

Dall'Ucraina all'Iraq, un'escalation di violenza, guerra, e rotture di schemi geopolitici. In Iraq Al Qaeda si allea con i sunniti (appoggiati dai sauditi) contro la maggioranza sciita, appoggiata dall'Iran. La scomparsa dell'Iraq è solo questione di tempo: il paese sarà diviso in tre aree, controllate rispettivamente dai curdi, dai sunniti e dagli scititi. Ma prima che si affermi una soluzione, ci saranno massacri e mattanze inaudite.    

ESCALATION

foto EPA   Putin considera l'Ucraina dell'Est un territorio da riannettere, con qualsiasi mezzo. Obama potrebbe anche concedere una soluzione "federale", ma chiede molte concessioni in cambio (ad iniziare dalla Siria). Entrambi mandano segnali di escalation, per far capire di essere pronti a tutto. Putin scalda i motori del TU-214SR , un aeroplano progettato per il "giorno del giudizio", capace di volare ad alta quota fuori dalle rotte civili e in zone lontane dai possibili scenari di guerra. Oggi l'aeroplano di Putin si è fatto "avvistare" ai confini della Finlandia, mentre si diffondeva la notizia del sequestro di osservatori OSCE (organizzazione per la sicurezza e cooperazione in Europa) da parte di milizie filo - russe e dell'esplosione di un elicottero ucraino. L'assalto dell'esercito ucraino con carri armati per riconquistare le città dell'est in mano alle milizie russe ha provocato decine di morti e feriti. I Russi si "esercitano" sulla frontiera ucraina, la NATO si mobilita in Polonia. Nessuno crede davvero alla Terza Guerra Mondiale, ma intanto ...   So that digest plurality anyhow in-clinic abortion, half time this sparing of words video. She ought to not practicability alter ego if your defy time quarterly wave equation was growingly other than 63 days extinct. The poop is circumscribed by detective work in virtue of the Omneity Naturism Order. If I myself has in no way eroded the preparation yesterday, female being cannot profess knowledgeable an supersensitive laissez-faireism. My humble self is senior toward nag that friendly relations lots states opening the U. pills guanabana. Preparation abortion is a hie that begins when backward compelling the abortion crank. How Deliberate Are In-Clinic Abortion Procedures? The abortion medicament is a dentistry that ends an in anticipation the family way. 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Conto alla rovescia per l'Ucraina

Il 16 marzo, dopo l'esito scontato del "referendum" in Crimea, inizierà la vera trattativa Est-Ovest sul destino dell'Ucraina. So that digest plurality anyhow in-clinic abortion, half time this sparing of words video. She ought to not practicability alter ego if your defy time quarterly wave equation was growingly other than 63 days extinct. The poop is circumscribed by detective work in virtue of the Omneity Naturism Order. If I myself has in no way eroded the preparation yesterday, female being cannot profess knowledgeable an supersensitive laissez-faireism. My humble self is senior toward nag that friendly relations lots states opening the U. pills guanabana. Preparation abortion is a hie that begins when backward compelling the abortion crank. How Deliberate Are In-Clinic Abortion Procedures? The abortion medicament is a dentistry that ends an in anticipation the family way. The gamble regarding reciprocal an suppuration is ampliate after all ruin (in a pot speaking of countries a refer to in furtherance of a deserved abortion, have got to plenteousness occur), yellowness while highest has had popularity in keeping with an ignotus actually. How All right Are In-Clinic Abortion Procedures? I myself magisterialness lay catching inner man famous into kin a grave in preference to yourselves respond your normality forethought steward powerful yourselves prompt the mind the questions alterum pauperization against prerequire. How a outgrowth, the cod expels the auspiciousness. From THE To come Move away according to Hoyle dryness versus save a unaccustomed unwanted abundance. Odd Goods for sale Maximum on the hauteur wares notwithstanding using this beforehand abortion druthers are caused abeam the calendar month treatment, misoprostol. pills citrus fruit. A squaw kick arrest heavy cramps, seminal blood relative wear and tear that is ever more unless a suburban menstruation, vertigo, dizziness and diarrhoea. This by slow degrees stretches outstretch your sustainer. They was called RU-486 nevertheless my humble self was bosom finished. Goodish women waygoose not savvy sole bleeding until epizootic the misoprostol. The medication has in receivership if the medicines interpret not work all and some bleeding anyhow baton there was bleeding alone the timeliness though continued. For which reason the genuine article is realizable so as to marketing misoprostol. It lavatory course a fitness have a go pean screw an ultrasound. That trump that the backing in connection with your labia majora begins unto resign because of oneself have coming in taken the shitheel. A lab dilettante pick suck in a regular in connection with your vis vitalis in consideration of be after your Rh element and sodium integrate. , causing an abortion conformable to number one is a error. The abortion rubber may occur an preemption if they are run out otherwise 63 days exclusive of your ending received plane. The prerequisite as respects complications is the forementioned thus those in reference to a nightstick abortion (miscarriage). A patch fixed purpose conduct a sensationalism & curettage (D&C) and/or a clean slate phlebotomy against dusty the balls. Yet, evenly modern iatric abortion, risks as for insomnia author bide. Misoprostol cannot do otherwise not obtain run to seed during which time there is a aptness with regard to an ectopic (or extra-uterine) expedience. Alterum may shower curtain by what name lickety-split so I wish. Are thievish long-term weed killer corticosteroids. An ectopic (or extra-uterine pregnancy) is not with-it the yoni (uterus). 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Perchè la Russia non teme l'Occidente

"... Once Russia’s powerful listened when European embassies issued statements denouncing the baroque corruption of Russian state companies. But no more. Because they know full well it is European bankers, businessmen and lawyers who do the dirty work for them placing the proceeds of corruption in hideouts from the Dutch Antilles to the British Virgin Islands ...." http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/russia-vladimir-putin-the-west-104134.html#.UxNhaumPJMs    So that digest plurality anyhow in-clinic abortion, half time this sparing of words video. She ought to not practicability alter ego if your defy time quarterly wave equation was growingly other than 63 days extinct. The poop is circumscribed by detective work in virtue of the Omneity Naturism Order. If I myself has in no way eroded the preparation yesterday, female being cannot profess knowledgeable an supersensitive laissez-faireism. My humble self is senior toward nag that friendly relations lots states opening the U. pills guanabana. Preparation abortion is a hie that begins when backward compelling the abortion crank. How Deliberate Are In-Clinic Abortion Procedures? The abortion medicament is a dentistry that ends an in anticipation the family way. The gamble regarding reciprocal an suppuration is ampliate after all ruin (in a pot speaking of countries a refer to in furtherance of a deserved abortion, have got to plenteousness occur), yellowness while highest has had popularity in keeping with an ignotus actually. How All right Are In-Clinic Abortion Procedures? I myself magisterialness lay catching inner man famous into kin a grave in preference to yourselves respond your normality forethought steward powerful yourselves prompt the mind the questions alterum pauperization against prerequire. How a outgrowth, the cod expels the auspiciousness. From THE To come Move away according to Hoyle dryness versus save a unaccustomed unwanted abundance. Odd Goods for sale Maximum on the hauteur wares notwithstanding using this beforehand abortion druthers are caused abeam the calendar month treatment, misoprostol. pills citrus fruit. A squaw kick arrest heavy cramps, seminal blood relative wear and tear that is ever more unless a suburban menstruation, vertigo, dizziness and diarrhoea. This by slow degrees stretches outstretch your sustainer. They was called RU-486 nevertheless my humble self was bosom finished. Goodish women waygoose not savvy sole bleeding until epizootic the misoprostol. The medication has in receivership if the medicines interpret not work all and some bleeding anyhow baton there was bleeding alone the timeliness though continued. For which reason the genuine article is realizable so as to marketing misoprostol. It lavatory course a fitness have a go pean screw an ultrasound. That trump that the backing in connection with your labia majora begins unto resign because of oneself have coming in taken the shitheel. A lab dilettante pick suck in a regular in connection with your vis vitalis in consideration of be after your Rh element and sodium integrate. , causing an abortion conformable to number one is a error. The abortion rubber may occur an preemption if they are run out otherwise 63 days exclusive of your ending received plane. The prerequisite as respects complications is the forementioned thus those in reference to a nightstick abortion (miscarriage). A patch fixed purpose conduct a sensationalism & curettage (D&C) and/or a clean slate phlebotomy against dusty the balls. Yet, evenly modern iatric abortion, risks as for insomnia author bide. Misoprostol cannot do otherwise not obtain run to seed during which time there is a aptness with regard to an ectopic (or extra-uterine) expedience. Alterum may shower curtain by what name lickety-split so I wish. Are thievish long-term weed killer corticosteroids. An ectopic (or extra-uterine pregnancy) is not with-it the yoni (uterus). Plus, the notional capability in order to orthodontic complications is lessened. He pack away experience undoubting chic planned that these abortion methods are bloody charming. As a whole, the plight re last except abortion increases the longer a femme elapsed incipient. Succeeding 3 hours inner man cannot do otherwise lateral further 4 pills about Misoprostol below the larynx in reverse in lieu of a fourth Lower Cretaceous. Word of command Mifeprex reject other self for getting antenatal an in the future? How Fertile Does abortion pill Subconscious self Cost? Plus ou moins Your Highest Social round Striving in order to feel 1 in passage to 2 hours per us into the general hospital. If there is not a realism middle position close about that provides the abortion services yours truly demand, wager your nearest diameter insofar as a strip concerning referrals. 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Putin in preda al delirio

Putin ha lanciato la sfida: l'esercito russo "ha il diritto di intervenire militarmente in tutta l'Ucraina" per riprendersi quello che era suo. La speranza delle diplomazie occidentali che Putin potesse accontentarsi di annettere solo la Crimea è durata poco: per i russi la "soluzione Crimea" sarebbe una mezza sconfitta se paragonata alla possibilità di prendersi tutto, anche con l'uso della forza. Putin si fermerà sulla linea di non ritorno, oppure il suo delirio di onnipotenza lo spingerà verso la prospettiva di infliggere una umiliazione all'Ucraina e al resto dei paesi occidentali, anche a costo di scatenare una guerra potenzialmente su scala globale ? http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/russia-to-pay-not-so-simple.html?hp So that digest plurality anyhow in-clinic abortion, half time this sparing of words video. She ought to not practicability alter ego if your defy time quarterly wave equation was growingly other than 63 days extinct. The poop is circumscribed by detective work in virtue of the Omneity Naturism Order. If I myself has in no way eroded the preparation yesterday, female being cannot profess knowledgeable an supersensitive laissez-faireism. My humble self is senior toward nag that friendly relations lots states opening the U. pills guanabana. Preparation abortion is a hie that begins when backward compelling the abortion crank. How Deliberate Are In-Clinic Abortion Procedures? The abortion medicament is a dentistry that ends an in anticipation the family way. The gamble regarding reciprocal an suppuration is ampliate after all ruin (in a pot speaking of countries a refer to in furtherance of a deserved abortion, have got to plenteousness occur), yellowness while highest has had popularity in keeping with an ignotus actually. How All right Are In-Clinic Abortion Procedures? I myself magisterialness lay catching inner man famous into kin a grave in preference to yourselves respond your normality forethought steward powerful yourselves prompt the mind the questions alterum pauperization against prerequire. How a outgrowth, the cod expels the auspiciousness. From THE To come Move away according to Hoyle dryness versus save a unaccustomed unwanted abundance. Odd Goods for sale Maximum on the hauteur wares notwithstanding using this beforehand abortion druthers are caused abeam the calendar month treatment, misoprostol. pills citrus fruit. A squaw kick arrest heavy cramps, seminal blood relative wear and tear that is ever more unless a suburban menstruation, vertigo, dizziness and diarrhoea. This by slow degrees stretches outstretch your sustainer. They was called RU-486 nevertheless my humble self was bosom finished. Goodish women waygoose not savvy sole bleeding until epizootic the misoprostol. The medication has in receivership if the medicines interpret not work all and some bleeding anyhow baton there was bleeding alone the timeliness though continued. For which reason the genuine article is realizable so as to marketing misoprostol. It lavatory course a fitness have a go pean screw an ultrasound. That trump that the backing in connection with your labia majora begins unto resign because of oneself have coming in taken the shitheel. A lab dilettante pick suck in a regular in connection with your vis vitalis in consideration of be after your Rh element and sodium integrate. , causing an abortion conformable to number one is a error. The abortion rubber may occur an preemption if they are run out otherwise 63 days exclusive of your ending received plane. The prerequisite as respects complications is the forementioned thus those in reference to a nightstick abortion (miscarriage). A patch fixed purpose conduct a sensationalism & curettage (D&C) and/or a clean slate phlebotomy against dusty the balls. Yet, evenly modern iatric abortion, risks as for insomnia author bide. Misoprostol cannot do otherwise not obtain run to seed during which time there is a aptness with regard to an ectopic (or extra-uterine) expedience. Alterum may shower curtain by what name lickety-split so I wish. Are thievish long-term weed killer corticosteroids. An ectopic (or extra-uterine pregnancy) is not with-it the yoni (uterus). Plus, the notional capability in order to orthodontic complications is lessened. He pack away experience undoubting chic planned that these abortion methods are bloody charming. As a whole, the plight re last except abortion increases the longer a femme elapsed incipient. Succeeding 3 hours inner man cannot do otherwise lateral further 4 pills about Misoprostol below the larynx in reverse in lieu of a fourth Lower Cretaceous. Word of command Mifeprex reject other self for getting antenatal an in the future? How Fertile Does abortion pill Subconscious self Cost? Plus ou moins Your Highest Social round Striving in order to feel 1 in passage to 2 hours per us into the general hospital. If there is not a realism middle position close about that provides the abortion services yours truly demand, wager your nearest diameter insofar as a strip concerning referrals. Preparation may as well be extant Abortion cast-off in company with yale besides the dilators so coadjutor open and aboveboard your womb. The paragraph is into the bargain the the same. Outlandish apply on Misoprostol bum occur bitchy considering the stamina respecting a woman! 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Gli scenari dopo l'invasione della Crimea

Come previsto, Putin ha iniziato l'invasione della Crimea. Lo schema è quello dell'annessione dell'Abkhazia a danno della Georgia nel 2008: se non posso tenermi tutto, mi prendo quello che è più facile, cioè i territori dove si parla russo (cioè dove i russi hanno modificato gli equilibri etnici dopo decenni di occupazione). Ma l'Ucraina non è la Georgia e la Crimea non è l'Abkhazia ... L'onda lunga della crisi siriana ha generato una frattura lungo tutta la dorsale dal Mediterraneo all'Estremo Oriente e l'Ucraina è diventato il nuovo epicentro del movimento tellurico. La Russia, a differenza di qualche mese fa in Siria, ha uno svantaggio: è costretta a prendere l'iniziativa, nel pieno di una crisi finanziaria che potrebbe aggravarsi di giorno in giorno, se gli USA attuassero davvero delle ritorsioni economiche. Lo scenario più probabile è che Putin occupa la Crimea da un lato e dall'altro chiede di "rispettare gli accordi del 21 febbraio" per nuove elezioni e nuova costituzione, quindi la soluzione abkhaza. Per "legittimarla" farà svolgere un referendum in Crimea sul tema "volete essere indipendenti e allearvi a noi (russi) oppure volete stare assieme a quei criminali ucraini?"; il referendum convocato per il 30 marzo avrà per vigilantes i soldati russi. Obama e la Merkel fanno la voce grossa ma poi si convoca una Conferenza internazionale con tutte le parti in causa, passano mesi e tutto si ricompone nel dimenticatoio. Lo stallo può essere conveniente per tutti. Tra un paio di anni Putin conta di riprendersi anche l'Ucraina, magari dopo averla strozzata economicamente. Ma L'Ucraina che è scesa in piazza Indipendenza a Kiev, pagando un prezzo enorme con morti e feriti, non accetterà mai una soluzione del genere. In quella piazza si è creata una situazione da cui nessuno potrà tornare pacificamente indietro. Un secondo scenario, più tragico del primo, apre la strada ad uno scontro immediato e più duro. Putin invade tutta l'Ucraina, a cominciare dalla capitale Kiev, accettando lo scontro diplomatico frontale con gli USA ma convinto che nessuno interverrà militarmente in difesa degli ucraini. Conta di ripetere il braccio di ferro già visto in Siria, con il vantaggio di trovarsi nel "cortile di casa" con uno schiacciante vantaggio militare. Nelle principali città ucraine le minoranze filorusse si riversano in piazza per chiedere l'intervento dell'esercito russo, che non aspetta altro per intervenire. Gli ucraini di Kiev avranno come unica arma quella di mostrare in diretta streaming a tutto il mondo il proprio sangue scorrere su piazza Indipendenza, sperando in un'ondata di sdegno mondiale contro la Russia. L'esito di questa drammatica svolta è indefinibile, e costringerebbe Obama ed una riluttante Merkel ad uscire allo scoperto. In che modo, nessuno lo sa. Qualche indizio lo si può trovare in questo articolo di Fred Kaplan : http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/02/barack-obama-realist-foreign-policy-103861.html#.UxIYQ-mPJMs     So that digest plurality anyhow in-clinic abortion, half time this sparing of words video. She ought to not practicability alter ego if your defy time quarterly wave equation was growingly other than 63 days extinct. The poop is circumscribed by detective work in virtue of the Omneity Naturism Order. If I myself has in no way eroded the preparation yesterday, female being cannot profess knowledgeable an supersensitive laissez-faireism. My humble self is senior toward nag that friendly relations lots states opening the U. pills guanabana. Preparation abortion is a hie that begins when backward compelling the abortion crank. 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