A PECHINO va in scena il teatrino del Partito

Nessuno crede  alle stime economiche fornite dal governo cinese. Ma tutti fanno finta di crederci, perché conviene. 

La sessione annuale del 12° Congresso Nazionale del Popolo, oltre a fornire numeri taroccati, ha preso atto che

il rallentamento dell'economia continuerà,

lo Stato continuerà a costruire infrastrutture inutili pur di sostenere il PIL,

 7 milioni di lavoratori cinesi saranno licenziati

il deficit dell'amministrazione statale potrà aumentare fino al 3% del PIL

le spese militari cresceranno ad un ritmo inferiore al 10%

ma soprattutto, come enfatizzato dal giornale ufficiale di Partito, la Cina questa volta non dice bugie "Though such concentrated investment might give the impression China is returning to the old strategy of investment-led growth, the premier gave his reassurance that they are effective investments."


Alcuni stralci dell'intervento di Li Keqiang da Xinhua

According to a government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang at the annual parliamentary meetings, China will invest 1.65 trillion yuan (2,530 billion U.S. dollars) on road construction and 800 billion yuan on new railways.

Other investment for the year includes 20 water conservation projects and projects ranging from hydropower and nuclear power to urban rail transit and urban underground pipelines.

Though such concentrated investment might give the impression China is returning to the old strategy of investment-led growth, the premier gave his reassurance that they are effective investments.

Following 6.9-percent economic growth in 2015, China set this year's target in the range of 6.5 to 7 percent. Bloomberg said this is "testing but achievable."

The fiscal and monetary policies are becoming more accommodative. This year's budget deficit-to-GDP ratio was raised to 3 percent, up from 2.3 percent last year. The growth of M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, was proposed to be 13 percent, one percentage point higher than last year's target.

Based on China's economic size last year, a rise of 0.7 percentage point in the deficit translates into an extra 470 billion yuan at the government's disposal. Central bank officials said last week that it will implement a prudent monetary policy with "an easing bias."

Stephen Roger, senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, told Xinhua that China has "ample fiscal space" to increase its budget deficit, and it is "both wise and prudent to minimize risks by taking out insurance in the form of proactive fiscal policy."

A wave of job losses is on the horizon as China works to slim down its inefficient state-owned enterprises, and this year's crop of college graduates is estimated at around 7.7 million, so adequate economic expansion and job creation are needed to prevent social instability. The 6.5 to 7 percent growth rate can generate enough new jobs, according to Li.

BEIJING, March 5 (Xinhua) -- China on Saturday announced the country's lowest defense budget increase in six years in the wake of rising economic headwinds and last year's massive drawdown of service people.

According to a budget report to the national legislature annual session, the government plans to raise the 2016 defense budget by 7.6 percent to 954 billion yuan (about 146 billion U.S. dollars).

The increase last year was 10.1 percent.

Maj. Gen. Chen Zhou linked the forecast-beating slowdown with China's "economic and social status quo" in an interview with Xinhua.

"A single-digit rise following years of double-digit growth is a prudent, moderate move," said Chen, also an NPC deputy, adding that there are no "hidden" expenses in the country's military spending.

Faced with increasing economic headwinds with uncertainty clouding global recovery, China saw its economy expanding 6.9 percent year on year in 2015, the slowest in a quarter of a century, weighed down by a property market downturn, falling trade and weak factory activity.

The government put this year's growth target between 6.5 and 7 percent, compared with last year's "approximately 7 percent" goal.

The cut of 300,000 service people announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in September might also have helped drive down the defense budget growth figure.

Both Chen and Luo shrugged off concerns from Western observers over China's growing military spending.

Though recent rises in defense budgets surpassed GDP growth, China's military expenditure in 2015 accounted for 1.33 percent of GDP, well below the world's average of 2.6 percent.


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