La Cina è vicina ... al default

Il 31 gennaio la Banca centrale cinese ed il governo dovranno decidere se far fallire o salvare un società finanziaria che non può restituire ai creditori i soldi presi a prestito.

Non si tratta di cifre enormi - circa 500 milioni di dollari - ma il salvataggio del trust aprirebbe le porte ad altri salvataggi, con somme enormi di denaro canalizzato nel cosiddetto sistema "ombra" della finanza cinese. Qualcuno parla di migliaia di miliardi di dollari, una cifra che metterebbe in ginocchio l'economia cinese e probabilmente creerebbe rivolte sociali dilaganti.

Ironia della sorte: il nome della finanziaria in crisi è "Credit Equals Gold #1 Collective Trust Product". La sua storia è simile a quella di tante altre messe in piedi da gruppi di costruttori edili con il beneplacito dei governi locali.

Il costruttore corrompe l'amministrazione locale per ottenere licenze e terreni. I contadini ottengono in cambio denaro che sperano di far fruttare con investimenti dai rendimenti allettanti in società tipo "Credit Equals Gold". Le società di investimento per restituire capitali e interessi contano sull'aumento dei prezzi delle case, ma il mercato ormai ha prezzi alti e intere città invendute, l'economia rallenta e il costo del denaro aumenta. La macchina si inceppa e i contadini espropriati corrono il rischio di non rivedere né i soldi né la terra ... Se il 31 gennaio "Credit Equals Gold" fallisce ci sarà la corsa dei risparmiatori a chi arriva prima a riprendersi i soldi prestati o depositati. Le grandi banche cinesi sono sovraesposte verso il sistema ombra, avendo collocato gran parte dei titoli emessi e potrebbero essere chiamate a coprire almeno una parte delle perdite derivanti dai default. La reazione a catena coinvolgerebbe tutti i settori della finanza e dell'economia, provocando una recessione che metterebbe a rischio l'equilibrio del potere politico.

I cinesi sopportano il Partito Comunista perché da più di 20 anni il sistema gli ha garantito tassi di crescita del 10% annuo. Rallentare o addirittura fermarsi sarebbe l'inizio della Grande Disillusione dagli effetti imprevedibili.

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